In 1985, the US Geological Survey predicted that there would be a comparably-sized earthquake in this community by 1993, but no such event came until September 28, 2004, when a 6.0 Mw earthquake struck at 10:15 am Pacific Daylight Time. Led by the USGS and the State of California, the experiment's purpose is to better understand the physics of earthquakes - what actually happens on the fault and in the surrounding region before, during and after an earthquake. The San Andreas Fault appears as the trough that extends from the upper-left hand to lower-right hand corner. The most recent significant earthquake to occur here happened on September 28, 2004. Sept 30: Another magnitude 5.0 earthquake shook the Parkfield area at 11:54 AM local time. Color represents elevation and shading (illuminated from the upper left) indicates slope. This earthquake ruptured the San Andreas Fault from Parkfield to Wrightwood, a distance of 225 miles (350 km). Moderate-size earthquakes of about magnitude 6 have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault at fairly regular intervals - in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966. Their coordinated efforts have led to a dense network of instruments poised to "capture" the anticipated earthquake and reveal the earthquake process in unprecedented detail.The exhibit was a geologically interactive, seismic machine earthwork temporarily installed in Parkfield in 2008. Data are available to view in real-time and download.While the greatest scientific payoff is expected when the earthquake occurs, our understanding of the earthquake process has already been advanced through research results from Parkfield. The town sits astride the San Andreas Fault Zone and is one of the most heavily studied earthquake areas in the world. Ultimately, scientists hope to better understand the earthquake process and, if possible, to provide a scientific basis for earthquake prediction. Parkfield earthquake is a name given to various large earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the town of Parkfield, California, United States. The San Andreas fault runs through this town, and six successive magnitude 6 earthquakes occurred on the fault at unusually regular intervals, between 12 and 32 years apart (with an average of every 22 years), between 1857 and 1966. These pages describe the scientific background for the experiment, including the tectonic setting at Parkfield, the historical earthquake activity on this section of the San Andreas fault, the monitoring and data collecting activities currently being carried out, and plans for future research. What we do know is that several meters of sudden right-lateral slip on the San Andreas fault produced shaking that lasted 1 to 3 minutes and that was felt over more than 350,000 square kilometers of central and southern California. The first, in 1857, was a foreshock to the great Fort Tejon earthquake which ruptured the fault from Parkfield to the southeast for over 180 miles. Another major earthquake is expected when the San Andreas finally breaks loose. The quake caused no injuries and minimal property damage, but was of great interest to American geologists.
Sept 29 : The Parkfield area experienced a sizeable aftershock today - an Mw 5.0 at 10:10 AM local time . Rogers presented the history, conceptual premise, documentation of the work, and also put forward the idea of how early 21st century cultural practice could be used to encourage earthquake awareness and preparedness. To the northwest of the epicenter, the San Andreas continually slips, causing frequent minor tremblors. The year 1993 came and went with no magnitude 6 earthquakes in the area, though Parkfield did experience a magnitude 4.7 quake on October 20, 1992, a magnitude 4.4 on April 4, 1993, a magnitude 5.0 on November 14, 1993, and a magnitude 4.9 on December 20, 1994. Available data suggest that all six moderate-sized Parkfield earthquakes may have been "characteristic" in the sense that they all ruptured the same area on the fault. The prediction was based on a sequence of 6 similar earthquakes that occured every 22 years (on average) from 1857 to 1966. In anticipation of this earthquake, geologists placed a large and varied suite of instruments along the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. Although the 2004 Parkfield earthquake occured over a decade later than predicted, its magnitude and behavior fulfilled the prediction.
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